What actually happened
Matcha is made from tencha, shaded leaf that is steamed, dried and stone-milled. Tencha is a small slice of Japanese tea, and demand for it went vertical. Between 2023 and 2025 matcha went from a specialty drink to a default menu item in cafés from Los Angeles to Dubai to Jakarta, and every one of those cafés is buying the same narrow band of first-harvest, shaded leaf.
The auction data tells the story. According to MAFF auction figures reported by the Global Japanese Tea Association, the average price of first-harvest tencha at the Kyoto auction went from about ¥5,400 per kg in 2024 to about ¥14,500 per kg in 2025. Top hand-picked Uji lots cleared above ¥40,000 per kg. In Yame, a single first-harvest lot cleared at ¥50,000 per kg in May 2025, a record for the region. At the same time, first-flush production in Shizuoka, the largest tea prefecture, fell roughly 19 percent year on year, and hand-picked Uji tencha was reported down around 40 percent.
Exports kept pulling. Japan's green tea exports in fiscal 2025 were reported at about 13,000 tonnes, up more than 40 percent, with powdered tea making up roughly 70 percent of the volume. The leaf that used to sit in Japanese warehouses now leaves the country within the year.
| Signal | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto auction, first-harvest tencha, average | ¥5,402 / kg | ¥14,541 / kg | about 2.7× |
| Shizuoka first-flush production | ~10,000 t | ~8,100 t | −19 % |
| Kagoshima first-flush production | ~8,440 t | ~8,440 t | flat (now the largest first flush) |
| Green tea exports (fiscal year) | — | ~13,100 t | +42 % year on year |
Why it is not going away in 2026
Three things make this structural rather than a one-season spike.
- Tea takes years. A new tencha field needs three to five years before its first commercial harvest, and shading structures cost money farmers do not have. Converting sencha fields to tencha helps, but it takes a season to set up and the leaf still only comes once a year in volume.
- Farmers are leaving. The average Japanese tea farmer is about 65. Between the 2015 and 2020 agricultural censuses the number of tea-growing farms fell from roughly 20,000 to roughly 12,000. Higher prices help the farms that are left; they do not bring back the ones that closed.
- First harvest is one harvest. The whole industry wants the April–May leaf. Second harvest in June–July and autumn leaf are plentiful, and most of the good café matcha in the world is made from them. The shortage is a shortage of a grade, not of matcha.
The early 2026 auctions opened lower than the 2025 peak in Kyoto and then climbed again, and Kagoshima first-harvest tencha reached new highs. Our read: prices stabilise at or a little above 2025 levels, and volume stays tight for the top grades through the 2027 harvest.
What it does to your price per kilo
Wholesale prices for the 2025 crop rose most at the top. US importers reported top ceremonial grades up around 75 percent year on year, mid grades up around 50 percent and culinary grades up around 30 percent. That is roughly what we saw at the mill, with one difference: mills in Yame and Kagoshima that already had long-term contracts moved less than the auction did.
Translate it to the cup. A latte uses about 2 g of matcha. At $290 per kg (our Takumi, first-harvest Yame Yabukita) the matcha in one latte costs $0.58. At $160 per kg (Minami, second-harvest Kagoshima) it costs $0.32. The difference between a very good matcha and a cheap one is 26 cents on a drink that sells for six or seven dollars. A 50 percent rise in your matcha price is a 15 to 30 cent change in cost per cup. It is real, but it is not the thing that decides whether the drink is profitable. Milk, labour and rent are.
The shortage is a shortage of one grade in one month of the year. Most café matcha is made from the other eleven.
Four things a café can do
- Lock a standing order for the harvest year. We fix the price per kg for monthly standing orders once the lot is confirmed, and we hold the lot for you. A standing order is the only way to take the auction out of your menu price.
- Put a second-harvest café grade behind the latte. Shaded second-harvest leaf from Yame or Kagoshima makes a latte that holds its colour and umami through milk at $160–$220 per kg. Keep the first-harvest lot for straight usucha and the drinks you put your name on. See how we grade.
- Buy origin, not the word Uji. Uji is where the price rose fastest because it is the name everyone asks for. Yame in Fukuoka and the shaded fields of Kagoshima produce first-harvest tencha of the same quality with far less pressure on the auction. Our note on Uji explains what the name does and does not guarantee.
- Price the latte honestly. If your matcha latte is still priced like 2023, the fix is on the menu, not in the supply chain. Our pricing guide walks through it with real numbers.
Where supply is still open
We buy directly from mills in Yame, Kagoshima and Shizuoka (Kakegawa). As of this harvest year we have first-harvest lots available from 1 kg, second-harvest café lots in volume, and Halal and Kosher certified lots from a certified mill with monthly capacity. Every product page shows the harvest, shading, cultivar and mill, and the price per kg. If you are switching suppliers because yours ran out, request three samples, taste them against what you pour now, and we will quote the standing order in one business day.
Questions buyers ask
Is there really a matcha shortage in 2026?
Yes, for first-harvest, shaded tencha. Kyoto auction prices for first-harvest tencha roughly tripled between 2024 and 2025 and stayed high in 2026, and first-flush volume in Shizuoka fell about a fifth. Second-harvest and autumn leaf, which most café matcha is made from, is not short.
How much have wholesale matcha prices gone up?
For the 2025 crop, US importers reported top ceremonial grades up around 75 percent, mid grades around 50 percent and culinary grades around 30 percent year on year. Mills with long-term contracts moved less than the auction.
Should a café switch to second-harvest matcha?
For lattes, usually yes. Shaded second-harvest leaf from Yame or Kagoshima holds colour and umami through milk at $160–$220 per kg. Keep a first-harvest lot for usucha and signature drinks.
Can I fix my matcha price for the year?
Yes. We fix the price per kg for confirmed monthly standing orders for the harvest year and hold the lot for you.
